Intranational synergies and trade-offs reveal common and differentiated priorities of sustainable development goals in China.

Accelerating efforts for the Sustainable Development Goals requires understanding their synergies and trade-offs at the national and sub-national levels, which will help identify the key hurdles and opportunities to prioritize them in an indivisible manner for a country. Here, we present the importance of the 17 goals through synergy and trade-off networks. Our results reveal that 19 provinces show the highest trade-offs in SDG13 (Combating Climate Change) or SDG5 (Gender Equality) consistent with the national level, with other 12 provinces varying. 24 provinces show the highest synergies in SDG1 (No Poverty) or SDG6 (Clean Water and Sanitation) consistent with the national level, with the remaining 7 provinces varying. These common but differentiated SDG priorities reflect that to ensure a coordinated national response, China should pay more attention to the provincial situation, so that provincial governments can formulate more targeted policies in line with their own priorities towards accelerating sustainable development.

Climate change market-driven poleward shifts in cropland production create opportunities for tropical biodiversity conservation and habitat restoration.

Although the impacts of climate change on the yields of crops have been studied, how these changes will result in the eventual realized crop production through market feedbacks has received little attention. Using a combination of attainable yield predictions for wheat, rice, maize, soybean and sugarcane, computable general equilibrium and land rent models, we project market impacts and crop-specific land-use change up to 2100 and the resulting implications for carbon and biodiversity. The results show a general increase in crop prices in tropical regions and a decrease in sub-tropical and temperate regions. Land-use change driven by market feedbacks generally amplify the effects of climate change on yields. Wheat, maize and sugarcane are projected to experience the most expansion especially in Canada and Russia, which also present the highest potential for habitat conversion-driven carbon emissions. Conversely, Latin America presents the highest extinction potential for birds, mammals and amphibians due to cropland expansion. Climate change is likely to redistribute agricultural production, generating market-driven land-use feedback effects which could, counterintuitively, protect global biodiversity by shifting global food production towards less-biodiverse temperate regions while creating substantial restoration opportunities in the tropics.

Indigenous Peoples' Lands are critical for safeguarding vertebrate diversity across the tropics.

Indigenous Peoples are long-term custodians of their lands, but only recently are their contributions to conservation starting to be recognized in biodiversity policy and practice. Tropical forest loss and degradation are lower in Indigenous lands than unprotected areas, yet the role of Indigenous Peoples' Lands (IPL) in biodiversity conservation has not been properly assessed from regional to global scales. Using species distribution ranges of 11,872 tropical forest-dependent vertebrates to create area of habitat maps, we identified the overlap of these species ranges with IPL and then compared values inside and outside of IPL for species richness, extinction vulnerability, and range-size rarity. Of assessed vertebrates, at least 76.8% had range overlaps with IPL, on average overlapping ~25% of their ranges; at least 120 species were found only within IPL. Species richness within IPL was highest in South America, while IPL in Southeast Asia had highest extinction vulnerability, and IPL in Dominica and New Caledonia were important for range-size rarity. Most countries in the Americas had higher species richness within IPL than outside, whereas most countries in Asia had lower extinction vulnerability scores inside IPL and more countries in Africa and Asia had slightly higher range-size rarity in IPL. Our findings suggest that IPL provide critical support for tropical forest-dependent vertebrates, highlighting the need for greater inclusion of Indigenous Peoples in conservation target-setting and program implementation, and stronger upholding of Indigenous Peoples' rights in conservation policy.

Indigenous lands in protected areas have high forest integrity across the tropics.

Intact tropical forests have a high conservation value.1 Although perceived as wild,2 they have been under long-term human influence.3 As global area-based conservation targets increase, the ecological contributions of Indigenous peoples through their governance institutions and practices4 are gaining mainstream interest. Indigenous lands-covering a quarter of Earth's surface5 and overlapping with a third of intact forests6-often have reduced deforestation, degradation, and carbon emissions, compared with non-protected areas and protected areas.7,8 A key question with implications for the design of more equitable and effective conservation policies is to understand the impacts of Indigenous lands on forest integrity and long-term use, as critical measures of ecosystem health included within the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework.9 Using the forest landscape integrity index10 and Anthromes11 datasets, we find that high-integrity forests tend to be located within the overlap of protected areas and Indigenous lands (protected-Indigenous areas). After accounting for location biases through statistical matching and regression, protected-Indigenous areas had the highest protective effect on forest integrity and the lowest land-use intensity relative to Indigenous lands, protected areas, and non-protected controls pan-tropically. The protective effect of Indigenous lands on forest integrity was lower in Indigenous lands than in protected areas and non-protected areas in the Americas and Asia. The combined positive effects of state legislation and Indigenous presence in protected-Indigenous areas may contribute to maintaining tropical forest integrity. Understanding management and governance in protected-Indigenous areas can help states to appropriately support community-governed lands.

Reproducibilidad de parámetros radiográficos para determinar el éxito quirúrgico de fracturas de radio distal / Reliability of radiographic parameters to determine the surgical success in distal radius fractures

Resumen: Introducción: las fracturas del radio distal son las más comunes en extremidades superiores. Estandarizar las mediciones radiográficas para su abordaje quirúrgico es importante. Este estudio midió la reproducibilidad intra/interobservador de parámetros radiográficos asociados al éxito quirúrgico en estas fracturas. Material y métodos: diseño transversal retrospectivo con datos secundarios de expedientes clínicos. Se evaluaron radiografías de 112 fracturas en planos posteroanterior y lateral por dos traumatólogos estandarizados en toma de mediciones para calcular cinco parámetros indicativos de éxito postquirúrgico: altura radial, inclinación radial, inclinación volar, varianza cubital y escalón articular. La reproducibilidad de distancias y ángulos se evaluó con el método de Bland-Altman calculando: diferencia media entre mediciones, rango a ± 2 DE y proporción de mediciones fuera de ± 2 DE. El éxito postquirúrgico se comparó en pacientes con/sin obesidad según la media de las dos mediciones de cada evaluador. Resultados: el evaluador 1 tuvo la mayor diferencia intraobservador en altura radial (0.16 mm) y la mayor proporción fuera de ± 2 DE en varianza cubital (8.1%); el evaluador 2 tuvo la mayor diferencia en inclinación volar (1.92o) y la mayor proporción en inclinación radial (10.7%). La mayor diferencia interobservador fue en varianza cubital (1.02 mm) y la mayor proporción fuera de ± 2 DE en altura radial (5.4%). La inclinación radial tuvo la mayor diferencia (1.41o) con 4.5% de mediciones fuera de ± 2 DE. La varianza cubital y la inclinación volar tuvieron la mayor diferencia de éxito postquirúrgico entre evaluadores, sobre todo en pacientes con obesidad. Conclusión: mejorar la calidad radiográfica y estandarizar las mediciones resulta en indicadores más reproducibles.

Abstract: Introduction: distal radius fractures are the most common in upper extremities. Therefore, it is important to standardize radiographic measures for their surgical approach. This study assessed the intra/interobserver reproducibility of radiographic parameters associated with surgical success of distal radius fractures. Material and methods: retrospective cross-sectional design of secondary data extracted from clinical records. Posteroanterior and lateral X-rays of 112 distal radius fractures were assessed by two trauma specialists standardized in the measurements required to compute five parameters indicative of postoperative success: radial height, radial inclination, volar tilt, ulnar variance, and articular stepoff. The reproducibility of distances and angles was evaluated using the Bland-Altman method, calculating the mean of the difference between measurements, the range at ± 2 SD, and the proportion of measurements outside ± 2 SD. Postoperative success was also compared between patients with and without obesity according to the mean of the two measures made by each evaluator. Results: evaluator 1 had the largest intra-observer difference in radial height (0.16 mm) and the largest proportion outside ± 2 SD in ulnar variance (8.1%); evaluator 2 had the largest difference in volar tilt (1.92o) and the highest proportion in radial inclination (10.7%). The largest inter-observer difference was for ulnar variance (1.02 mm) and the largest proportion outside ± 2 SD. for radial height (5.4%). Radial tilt had the largest difference (1.41o) with 4.5% of measurements outside ± 2 SD. Ulnar variance and volar tilt had the largest difference in postoperative success between evaluators, especially in patients with obesity. Conclusion: improving the radiographic quality and standardizing the measurements results in more reproducible indicators.

Leave no one behind: A case of ecosystem service supply equity in Singapore.

Urban populations benefit greatly from the ecosystem services provided by urban green and blue spaces. While the equity of provision of and access to urban green and blue spaces has been widely explored, research on equity of ecosystem service provision is relatively scant. Using household level data, our study aims to assess the supply equity of five regulatory ecosystem services in Singapore. We employed linear mixed-effects models and Hot Spot Analysis to analyze their distributional equity across individual households of various demographic characteristics (horizontal inequality), and calculated Gini coefficient for the distribution of PM10 removal service among households categorised into demographic subgroups (vertical inequality). Our results show little evidence of inequitable ecosystem service provision among Singapore's diverse socio-demographic groups. This can be attributed to the early integration of environmental management strategies and meticulous socio-economic desegregation efforts into urban development plans, which maximised provision and maintenance of urban green spaces to all residents.

People's desire to be in nature and how they experience it are partially heritable.

Nature experiences have been linked to mental and physical health. Despite the importance of understanding what determines individual variation in nature experience, the role of genes has been overlooked. Here, using a twin design (TwinsUK, number of individuals = 2,306), we investigate the genetic and environmental contributions to a person's nature orientation, opportunity (living in less urbanized areas), and different dimensions of nature experience (frequency and duration of public nature space visits and frequency and duration of garden visits). We estimate moderate heritability of nature orientation (46%) and nature experiences (48% for frequency of public nature space visits, 34% for frequency of garden visits, and 38% for duration of garden visits) and show their genetic components partially overlap. We also find that the environmental influences on nature experiences are moderated by the level of urbanization of the home district. Our study demonstrates genetic contributions to individuals' nature experiences, opening a new dimension for the study of human-nature interactions.

Discovery of serum biomarkers for diagnosis of tuberculosis by NMR metabolomics including cross-validation with a second cohort.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is a disease with worldwide presence and a major cause of death in several developing countries. Current diagnostic methodologies often lack specificity and sensitivity, whereas a long time is needed to obtain a conclusive result. METHODS: In an effort to develop better diagnostic methods, this study aimed at the discovery of a biomarker signature for TB diagnosis using a Nuclear Magnetic Resonance based metabolomics approach. In this study, we acquired 1H NMR spectra of blood serum samples of groups of healthy subjects, individuals with latent TB and of patients with pulmonary and extra-pulmonary TB. The resulting data were treated with uni- and multivariate statistical analysis. RESULTS: Six metabolites (inosine, hypoxanthine, mannose, asparagine, aspartate and glutamate) were validated by an independent cohort, all of them related with metabolic processes described as associated with TB infection. CONCLUSION: The findings of the study are according with the WHO Target Product Profile recommendations for a triage test to rule-out active TB.

Threats to land and environmental defenders in nature's last strongholds.

Land and environmental defenders are a major bulwark against environmental destruction and biodiversity loss resulting from unsustainable nature resource extraction. Resultant conflicts can lead to violence against and deaths of these defenders. Along with mounting environmental pressures, homicides of these defenders are increasing globally. Yet, this issue has only recently started to receive scientific attention. While existing studies indicate the importance of socio-economic processes in driving such murders, spatially explicit global analyses considering environmental components are largely missing. Here, we take a broad spatial approach to assess relative contributions of environmental factors to the killing of environmental defenders. We find higher rates of such homicides are typically found in areas where limited or underutilized resources (e.g., freshwater, land and forests) are more available. Our results point towards a prevalent global land scarcity that results in industries targeting the last remaining strongholds for biodiversity and the environmental defenders within.

Time Series Transcriptomic Analysis of Bronchoalveolar Lavage Cells from Piglets Infected with Virulent or Low-Virulent Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus 1.

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) has evolved to escape the immune surveillance for a survival advantage leading to a strong modulation of host's immune responses and favoring secondary bacterial infections. However, limited data are available on how the immunological and transcriptional responses elicited by virulent and low-virulent PRRSV-1 strains are comparable and how they are conserved during the infection. To explore the kinetic transcriptional signature associated with the modulation of host immune response at lung level, a time-series transcriptomic analysis was performed in bronchoalveolar lavage cells upon experimental in vivo infection with two PRRSV-1 strains of different virulence, virulent subtype 3 Lena strain or the low-virulent subtype 1 3249 strain. The time-series analysis revealed overlapping patterns of dysregulated genes enriched in T-cell signaling pathways among both virulent and low-virulent strains, highlighting an upregulation of co-stimulatory and co-inhibitory immune checkpoints that were disclosed as Hub genes. On the other hand, virulent Lena infection induced an early and more marked "negative regulation of immune system process" with an overexpression of co-inhibitory receptors genes related to T-cell and NK cell functions, in association with more severe lung lesion, lung viral load, and BAL cell kinetics. These results underline a complex network of molecular mechanisms governing PRRSV-1 immunopathogenesis at lung level, revealing a pivotal role of co-inhibitory and co-stimulatory immune checkpoints in the pulmonary disease, which may have an impact on T-cell activation and related pathways. These immune checkpoints, together with the regulation of cytokine-signaling pathways, modulated in a virulence-dependent fashion, orchestrate an interplay among pro- and anti-inflammatory responses. IMPORTANCE Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) is one of the major threats to swine health and global production, causing substantial economic losses. We explore the mechanisms involved in the modulation of host immune response at lung level performing a time-series transcriptomic analysis upon experimental infection with two PRRSV-1 strains of different virulence. A complex network of molecular mechanisms was revealed to control the immunopathogenesis of PRRSV-1 infection, highlighting an interplay among pro- and anti-inflammatory responses as a potential mechanism to restrict inflammation-induced lung injury. Moreover, a pivotal role of co-inhibitory and co-stimulatory immune checkpoints was evidenced, which may lead to progressive dysfunction of T cells, impairing viral clearance and leading to persistent infection, favoring as well secondary bacterial infections or viral rebound. However, further studies should be conducted to evaluate the functional role of immune checkpoints in advanced stages of PRRSV infection and explore a possible T-cell exhaustion state.

[Reliability of radiographic parameters to determine the surgical success in distal radius fractures]. / Reproducibilidad de parámetros radiográficos para determinar el éxito quirúrgico de fracturas de radio distal.

INTRODUCTION: distal radius fractures are the most common in upper extremities. Therefore, it is important to standardize radiographic measures for their surgical approach. This study assessed the intra/interobserver reproducibility of radiographic parameters associated with surgical success of distal radius fractures. MATERIAL AND METHODS: retrospective cross-sectional design of secondary data extracted from clinical records. Posteroanterior and lateral X-rays of 112 distal radius fractures were assessed by two trauma specialists standardized in the measurements required to compute five parameters indicative of postoperative success: radial height, radial inclination, volar tilt, ulnar variance, and articular stepoff. The reproducibility of distances and angles was evaluated using the Bland-Altman method, calculating the mean of the difference between measurements, the range at ± 2 SD, and the proportion of measurements outside ± 2 SD. Postoperative success was also compared between patients with and without obesity according to the mean of the two measures made by each evaluator. RESULTS: evaluator 1 had the largest intra-observer difference in radial height (0.16 mm) and the largest proportion outside ± 2 SD in ulnar variance (8.1%); evaluator 2 had the largest difference in volar tilt (1.92o) and the highest proportion in radial inclination (10.7%). The largest inter-observer difference was for ulnar variance (1.02 mm) and the largest proportion outside ± 2 SD. for radial height (5.4%). Radial tilt had the largest difference (1.41o) with 4.5% of measurements outside ± 2 SD. Ulnar variance and volar tilt had the largest difference in postoperative success between evaluators, especially in patients with obesity. CONCLUSION: improving the radiographic quality and standardizing the measurements results in more reproducible indicators.

INTRODUCCIÓN: las fracturas del radio distal son las más comunes en extremidades superiores. Estandarizar las mediciones radiográficas para su abordaje quirúrgico es importante. Este estudio midió la reproducibilidad intra/interobservador de parámetros radiográficos asociados al éxito quirúrgico en estas fracturas. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: diseño transversal retrospectivo con datos secundarios de expedientes clínicos. Se evaluaron radiografías de 112 fracturas en planos posteroanterior y lateral por dos traumatólogos estandarizados en toma de mediciones para calcular cinco parámetros indicativos de éxito postquirúrgico: altura radial, inclinación radial, inclinación volar, varianza cubital y escalón articular. La reproducibilidad de distancias y ángulos se evaluó con el método de Bland-Altman calculando: diferencia media entre mediciones, rango a ± 2 DE y proporción de mediciones fuera de ± 2 DE. El éxito postquirúrgico se comparó en pacientes con/sin obesidad según la media de las dos mediciones de cada evaluador. RESULTADOS: el evaluador 1 tuvo la mayor diferencia intraobservador en altura radial (0.16 mm) y la mayor proporción fuera de ± 2 DE en varianza cubital (8.1%); el evaluador 2 tuvo la mayor diferencia en inclinación volar (1.92o) y la mayor proporción en inclinación radial (10.7%). La mayor diferencia interobservador fue en varianza cubital (1.02 mm) y la mayor proporción fuera de ± 2 DE en altura radial (5.4%). La inclinación radial tuvo la mayor diferencia (1.41o) con 4.5% de mediciones fuera de ± 2 DE. La varianza cubital y la inclinación volar tuvieron la mayor diferencia de éxito postquirúrgico entre evaluadores, sobre todo en pacientes con obesidad. CONCLUSIÓN: mejorar la calidad radiográfica y estandarizar las mediciones resulta en indicadores más reproducibles.

The jigsaw of PRRSV virulence.

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) is the causative agent of the, probably, most economically important disease for the pig industry worldwide. This disease, characterised by producing reproductive failure in sows and respiratory problems in growing pigs, appeared in the late 1980s in the United States and Canada. Since its appearance, strains capable of producing higher mortality rates as well as greater severity in clinical signs and lesions than classical strains have been identified. However, since the first reports of these "virulent" PRRSV outbreaks, no homogeneity and consensus in their description have been established. Moreover, to the authors' knowledge, there is no published information related to the criteria that a PRRSV strain should fulfil to be considered as a "virulent" strain. In this review, we revise the terminology used and gather the information related to the main characteristics and differences in clinical signs, lesions, viral replication and tropism as well as immunological parameters between virulent and classical PRRSV strains and propose a first approximation to the criteria to define a virulent PRRSV strain.

Having a stake in the future and perceived population density influence intergenerational cooperation.

Intergenerational common-pool resource games represent a new experimental paradigm in which the current generation's decision to cooperate or defect influences future generations who cannot reciprocate, providing key insights for sustainability science. We combine experimental and theoretical approaches to assess the roles of having a stake in the future (50% chance to pass the resource on to themselves in the next generation) and reminders of the presence of others (exposure to people-chatting sounds) on intergenerational cooperation. We find that, as expected, having a stake in the future increases cooperation with future generations, except when participants are also exposed to people-chatting sounds. We hypothesize that this interaction effect occurs because people-chatting sounds trigger a perception of large group size, which reduces the chance of individuals and their descendants benefiting from the pool in the future, thus reducing cooperation. Our results highlight the context-dependent effect of having a future stake on intergenerational cooperation for resource sustainability, and suggest an area of future work for environmental messaging.

Using mobile phone data to examine weather impacts on recreational ecosystem services in an urban protected area.

Mobile phone big data can offer new opportunities for identifying weather impacts on recreational ecosystem services in protected areas. This could be useful to assess how climate change could affect recreational ecosystem services. To explore these opportunities, we utilize mobile phone data and examine impacts of tropical weather (temperature, rainfall, and wind) and holidays on visitor numbers and stay time in an urban protected area in Singapore. These impacts were analyzed by visitors' home regions and ethnic groups as well. The study results showed that rising temperatures below 31.7 °C had positive impacts on visitor numbers, in contrast to the common perception that cooler temperatures would be always preferred for outdoor activities in a tropical region. Meanwhile, these rising temperatures reduced visitor stay time in the protected area. Rain and wind had limited impacts on visitors. Compared to the weather variables, holidays had bigger impacts on visitors, particularly the Chinese group and those visitors living not close to the protected area. The study results highlight several advantages of mobile phone data application to analyzing weather impacts on public use of urban protected areas.

Prevalence of mycoplasma-like lung lesions in pigs from commercial farms from Spain and Portugal.

BACKGROUND: Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae causes a chronic respiratory disease that produces important economic losses due to poor productive performance, increased mortality and costs for several control strategies. The prevalence of mycoplasma-like lesions (MLL) at abattoir has been widely studied in different countries, making use of different scoring systems. However, most of them are difficult to apply in abattoirs with high number of pigs sacrificed per hour. For that reason, it is necessary to adapt the scoring system to the reality of the modern abattoir, even if there is a loss of accuracy. Our purpose was to investigate the prevalence and severity of MLL at abattoirs in Spain and Portugal using a 0 to 5 scoring system adapted to abattoirs with high number of sacrificed pigs per hour and to highlight the histopathological diagnosis as confirmatory method to identify patterns of pneumonia correlated to gross lesions. RESULTS: Cranioventral pulmonary consolidation, a typical MLL, was the most frequent lung lesion (30.97 %) detected at the abattoir, followed by dorsocaudal infarcts with pleurisy (12.51 %) and pleurisy alone (6.26 %). The average score for all examined lungs at abattoir was 1.99 out of 5 points. The histopathological study revealed that the 78.17 % of the randomly selected lungs with MLL presented microscopic lesions compatible with M. hyopneumoniae infection. Most bronchointerstitial and interstitial pneumonia lesions had a chronic course while most suppurative and fibrinous bronchopneumonia lesions had an acute course and a higher degree of severity. The combination of microscopic lesions more frequently observed was bronchointerstitial pneumonia + interstitial pneumonia + suppurative bronchopneumonia. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of MLL at abattoir was 30.97 %, however, after microscopic examination the real prevalence of lungs with lesions compatible with M. hyopneumoniae infection was reduced up to 24.21 %. The six more prevalent combinations of lesions in the microscopic study involved the 66.13 % of examined lungs, and in all of them, microscopic lesions characteristic of M. hyopneumoniae infection were found, what supports the importance of M. hyopneumoniae as a primary pathogen in cases of PRDC.

Evaluating a large-scale online behaviour change intervention aimed at wildlife product consumers in Singapore.

Interventions to shift the behaviour of consumers using unsustainable wildlife products are key to threatened species conservation. Whether these interventions are effective is largely unknown due to a dearth of detailed evaluations. We previously conducted a country-level online behaviour change intervention targeting consumers of the Critically Endangered saiga antelope (Saiga tatarica) horn in Singapore. To evaluate intervention impact, we carried out in-person consumer surveys with >2,000 individuals pre- and post-intervention (2017 and 2019), and 93 in-person post-intervention surveys with traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) shopkeepers (2019). The proportion of self-reported high-usage saiga horn consumers in the target audience (Chinese Singaporean women aged 35-59) did not change significantly from pre- to post-intervention (24.4% versus 22.6%). However, post-intervention the target audience was significantly more likely than the non-target audience to accurately recall the intervention message and to report a decrease in saiga horn usage (4% versus 1% reported a behaviour change). Within the target audience, high-usage consumers were significantly more likely than lower-usage consumers to recall the message and report a behaviour change. Across respondents who reported a decrease in saiga horn usage, they cited the intervention message as a specific reason for their behaviour change significantly more than other reasons. Additionally, across all respondents, the belief that saiga is a common species in the wild decreased significantly from pre- to post-intervention. TCM shopkeepers, however, cited factors such as price and availability as the strongest influences on saiga horn sales. In sum, the intervention did significantly influence some consumers but the reduction of high-usage consumer frequency was not significant at the population level. We explore reasons for these findings, including competing consumer influences, characteristics of the intervention, and evaluation timing. This work suggests our intervention approach has potential, and exemplifies a multi-pronged in-person evaluation of an online wildlife trade consumer intervention.

Coordinated intensification to reconcile the 'zero hunger' and 'life on land' Sustainable Development Goals.

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) encourage nations to substantially increase food production to achieve zero hunger (SDG 2) while preserving life on land (SDG 15). A key question is how to reconcile these potentially competing goals spatially. We use integer linear programming to develop an 'integrated land use planning framework' that identifies the optimal allocation of 17 crops under different hypothetical conservation targets while meeting agricultural demands by 2030. Intensifying existing cropland to maximum yield before allocating new cropland would reduce land requirement by 43% versus cropland expansion without intensification. Even with yield gap closure, tropical and sub-tropical crops still require expansion, primarily allocated to Venezuela, eastern Brazil, Congo Basin, Myanmar and Indonesia. Enforcement of protected areas, via avoiding conversion in 75% of Key Biodiversity Areas and 65% of intact areas, is vital to attain biodiversity targets but bears large opportunity costs, with agricultural rents dropping from $4.1 to $2.8 trillion. Although nationally constrained forest conservation efforts would earn 9% less agricultural rents compared to globally coordinated conservation solutions, they were also able to reduce intact habitat and forest loss (43% and 35% reduction). Our results demonstrate that careful choice of the allocation of future cropland expansion, could dramatically reduce-but not eliminate-the tradeoffs between the SDGs for food production and land biodiversity conservation.

Spatio-temporal analysis of the main dengue vector populations in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: Despite the licensure of the world's first dengue vaccine and the current development of additional vaccine candidates, successful Aedes control remains critical to the reduction of dengue virus transmission. To date, there is still limited literature that attempts to explain the spatio-temporal population dynamics of Aedes mosquitoes within a single city, which hinders the development of more effective citywide vector control strategies. Narrowing this knowledge gap requires consistent and longitudinal measurement of Aedes abundance across the city as well as examination of relationships between variables on a much finer scale. METHODS: We utilized a high-resolution longitudinal dataset generated from Singapore's islandwide Gravitrap surveillance system over a 2-year period and built a Bayesian hierarchical model to explain the spatio-temporal dynamics of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in relation to a wide range of environmental and anthropogenic variables. We also created a baseline during our model assessment to serve as a benchmark to be compared with the model's out-of-sample prediction/forecast accuracy as measured by the mean absolute error. RESULTS: For both Aedes species, building age and nearby managed vegetation cover were found to have a significant positive association with the mean mosquito abundance, with the former being the strongest predictor. We also observed substantial evidence of a nonlinear effect of weekly maximum temperature on the Aedes abundance. Our models generally yielded modest but statistically significant reductions in the out-of-sample prediction/forecast error relative to the baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that public residential estates with older buildings and more nearby managed vegetation should be prioritized for vector control inspections and community advocacy to reduce the abundance of Aedes mosquitoes and the risk of dengue transmission.

Drivers of deforestation and degradation for 28 tropical conservation landscapes.

Analysing the drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in conservation landscapes can provide crucial information for conservation management. While rates of forest loss can be measured through remote sensing, on the ground information is needed to confirm the commodities and actors behind deforestation. We administered a questionnaire to Wildlife Conservation Society's landscape managers to assess the deforestation drivers in 28 tropical conservation landscapes. Commercial and subsistence agriculture were the main drivers of deforestation, followed by settlement expansion and infrastructure development. Rice, rubber, cassava and maize were the crops most frequently cited as drivers of deforestation in these emblematic conservation landscapes. Landscape managers expected deforestation trends to continue at similar or greater magnitude in the future, calling for urgent measures to mitigate these trends.

Mapping the cryptic spread of the 2015-2016 global Zika virus epidemic.

BACKGROUND: Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged as a global epidemic in 2015-2016 from Latin America with its true geographical extent remaining unclear due to widely presumed underreporting. The identification of locations with potential and unknown spread of ZIKV is a key yet understudied component for outbreak preparedness. Here, we aim to identify locations at a high risk of cryptic ZIKV spread during 2015-2016 to further the understanding of the global ZIKV epidemiology, which is critical for the mitigation of the risk of future epidemics. METHODS: We developed an importation simulation model to estimate the weekly number of ZIKV infections imported in each susceptible spatial unit (i.e. location that did not report any autochthonous Zika cases during 2015-2016), integrating epidemiological, demographic, and travel data as model inputs. Thereafter, a global risk model was applied to estimate the weekly ZIKV transmissibility during 2015-2016 for each location. Finally, we assessed the risk of onward ZIKV spread following importation in each susceptible spatial unit to identify locations with a high potential for cryptic ZIKV spread during 2015-2016. RESULTS: We have found 24 susceptible spatial units that were likely to have experienced cryptic ZIKV spread during 2015-2016, of which 10 continue to have a high risk estimate within a highly conservative scenario, namely, Luanda in Angola, Banten in Indonesia, Maharashtra in India, Lagos in Nigeria, Taiwan and Guangdong in China, Dakar in Senegal, Maputo in Mozambique, Kinshasa in Congo DRC, and Pool in Congo. Notably, among the 24 susceptible spatial units identified, some have reported their first ZIKV outbreaks since 2017, thus adding to the credibility of our results (derived using 2015-2016 data only). CONCLUSION: Our study has provided valuable insights into the potentially high-risk locations for cryptic ZIKV circulation during the 2015-2016 pandemic and has also laid a foundation for future studies that attempt to further narrow this key knowledge gap. Our modelling framework can be adapted to identify areas with likely unknown spread of other emerging vector-borne diseases, which has important implications for public health readiness especially in resource-limited settings.